Expert Q&A: Climate at the limit

With U.N. projections warning of rising global temperatures, epidemiologist Rachel Gaither says passing the 1.5°C threshold isn't a signal to give up. We spoke with her about how public health awareness, resilience and adaptation will help us navigate the realities of our changing climate.

Delegates from across the globe gathered to sign the Paris Agreement at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in 2015. Following years of preparatory discussions, officials negotiated for about two weeks before agreeing to a series of climate goals. The most urgent of these was to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.

The Paris Agreement was a milestone in international cooperation, bringing nearly every country into one climate framework. It was backed by the awareness that climate change is fueling a surge of natural disasters, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the destruction of ecosystems.

But according to a new report from the U.N. Environment Programme, we are expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold within the next few years. The U.N. also projects  2.8°C of warming within this century, if we stay on our current policy path. 

To put that into perspective, the last time the earth had a sustained temperature of 2.8°C above the baseline was about 3 million years ago, during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, when sea levels were an estimated 57 feet higher than they are today. 

When it comes to climate change and public health, Brown researchers are investigating ways to mitigate the effects of a runaway climate and adapt to its realities. Among them is Rachel Gaither Ph.D.’24, a research scientist in Brown’s Department of Epidemiology who runs and facilitates research and statistical analysis at its Center for Climate, Environment and Health. 

Center faculty and staff conduct research in environmental epidemiology, investigating everything from heat and air pollution to agricultural and coal emissions and the health effects of green spaces in our neighborhoods.

We asked Gaither for her reaction to the U.N. report. She also shared her public health concerns, and causes for optimism. 

What are your thoughts on the latest report from the U.N., Limiting Overshoot, which says we are certain to break the 1.5°C threshold within this decade?

It never feels good to read things like that. But the fact that our changing climate is already impacting our lives and people’s health is not shocking to anyone who studies this. In the data we have, we already see the health impacts of warmer weather and more air pollution.We know that people are already being affected, both on an individual medical scale and on a broader societal scale. 

A report that puts these things into plain language doesn’t mean this is a new discovery. It’s just becoming translated into wider public knowledge. And that’s good, because we need awareness in order to have any chance of doing something, taking action or responding in a meaningful way.

The silver lining is that we are already starting to be equipped to respond. I think that our response, and our understanding of resilience and adaptation, is also further along than people might think. 

Obviously, climate change is terrifying, but we can adapt. People and communities are very resilient, and there are solutions that can help us continue to navigate the world and mitigate a lot of what is happening.

I think it’s really important that people know that, because when you understand that it’s not an inevitability, you know that you can take action and help protect yourself and the people around you.

People and communities are very resilient, and there are solutions that can help us continue to navigate the world and mitigate a lot of what is happening. I think it’s really important that people know that, because when you understand that it’s not an inevitability, you know that you can take action and help protect yourself and the people around you.

Rachel Gaither Ph.D.’24 research scientist in the Department of Epidemiology and the Center for Climate, Environment and Health at the Brown University School of Public Health
 
Rachel Gaither Ph.D.’24, research scientist in Brown’s Department of Epidemiology and the Center for Climate, Environment and Health

Are there health effects of climate change that might surprise people?

Heat and heat stress can really affect the body systemically. We often think about heat stroke and acute dehydration — outcomes that are very easy to connect to excessive heat exposure, but what we’re seeing more and more, especially with chronic heat exposure, is that even moderately warm temperatures can affect health.

We’re particularly concerned about conditions that affect the cardiovascular and respiratory systems, because both are under increased stress when temperatures rise. We see impacts of heat on things like heart failure, heart attacks, renal disease, infectious disease and pulmonary conditions such as COPD and asthma.

So it’s really important that people, clinicians and communities understand that chronic health conditions that many people live with, even something as common as hypertension, can be exacerbated during heat events in ways that we can measure. It’s not necessarily as dramatic or acute as someone becoming severely dehydrated or suffering heat stroke, but we can see measurable increases in things like hospitalizations for heart attacks on hotter days.

The projects I work on are mostly focused on older adults, particularly the Medicare population, who we know are a vulnerable group. They often have some of these chronic conditions that can make them more susceptible to heat. 

But these effects can occur across the life course. People with lower adaptive capacity — including young children and people who are pregnant — can also be particularly vulnerable to heat.

How can public health systems prepare for accelerating global warming?

We have to think about ways to increase people’s ability to adapt and their capacity to withstand these exposures. And that happens at both the individual and systemic levels.

Climate and weather should be thought of as exposures that clinicians can help patients prepare for, just as they would for other health risks, in order to prevent some of the exacerbations that can happen during extreme weather events.

Practically, that can mean access to air conditioning, which is a huge issue. It can mean access to medications, particularly if people are unable to go out or are trying to avoid going outside. We also need to think about people’s ability to stay connected to their communities and get the things they need.

And then there are notification systems. In general, people have to seek out air quality forecasts for day-to-day exposures (like checking AirNow or having alerts set up), whereas we have more established systems for heat advisories. I would love to see more centralized notifications about elevated air pollution that cover situations beyond extreme wildfire smoke advisories.

People need to know what’s going on so they can take action. You shouldn’t have to look up at the sky and say, “Oh my God, the sky is orange.” You should be notified before you see it yourself, and you should know what to do when it happens.

We already have a kind of societal intuition about some weather hazards. If there’s going to be a thunderstorm, we know not to go stand on a hill and let lightning hit us. We need to develop that same kind of societal understanding around increasingly common climate-related events, like wildfires. There’s a lot we can do to help people understand these risks and prepare for them.

What’s the biggest misconception you encounter when you talk to people about climate change and health?

I think we tend to see climate change as a series of extreme events or natural disasters. And we think of climate-related health impacts as the emergencies: the deaths, the hospitalizations, the people who become really sick.

But what I think people need to realize is that climate and weather affect the health of all of us, whether the effects are positive or negative. I’d love to see more of an appreciation of that — and more of a sense of ownership as a community that we can all take action to protect ourselves and others.

It’s important to do that now, rather than waiting until there’s an emergency. The old saying “an ounce of prevention is worth a pound of cure,” is really relevant here.

I hope people will start to see climate change, not as something that impacts other people, but as something that impacts them. It doesn’t matter if you’re young and healthy, or older and living with chronic health conditions, we all have a role to play in protecting our own health and the health of the people around us.