Delegates from across the globe gathered to sign the Paris Agreement at the U.N. Climate Change Conference in 2015. Following years of preparatory discussions, officials negotiated for about two weeks before agreeing to a series of climate goals. The most urgent of these was to limit global temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
The Paris Agreement was a milestone in international cooperation, bringing nearly every country into one climate framework. It was backed by the awareness that climate change is fueling a surge of natural disasters, resulting in tens of thousands of deaths and the destruction of ecosystems.
But according to a new report from the U.N. Environment Programme, we are expected to exceed the 1.5°C threshold within the next few years. The U.N. also projects 2.8°C of warming within this century, if we stay on our current policy path.
To put that into perspective, the last time the earth had a sustained temperature of 2.8°C above the baseline was about 3 million years ago, during the Mid-Piacenzian Warm Period, when sea levels were an estimated 57 feet higher than they are today.
When it comes to climate change and public health, Brown researchers are investigating ways to mitigate the effects of a runaway climate and adapt to its realities. Among them is Rachel Gaither Ph.D.’24, a research scientist in Brown’s Department of Epidemiology who runs and facilitates research and statistical analysis at its Center for Climate, Environment and Health.
Center faculty and staff conduct research in environmental epidemiology, investigating everything from heat and air pollution to agricultural and coal emissions and the health effects of green spaces in our neighborhoods.
We asked Gaither for her reaction to the U.N. report. She also shared her public health concerns, and causes for optimism.
What are your thoughts on the latest report from the U.N., Limiting Overshoot, which says we are certain to break the 1.5°C threshold within this decade?
It never feels good to read things like that. But the fact that our changing climate is already impacting our lives and people’s health is not shocking to anyone who studies this. In the data we have, we already see the health impacts of warmer weather and more air pollution.We know that people are already being affected, both on an individual medical scale and on a broader societal scale.
A report that puts these things into plain language doesn’t mean this is a new discovery. It’s just becoming translated into wider public knowledge. And that’s good, because we need awareness in order to have any chance of doing something, taking action or responding in a meaningful way.
The silver lining is that we are already starting to be equipped to respond. I think that our response, and our understanding of resilience and adaptation, is also further along than people might think.
Obviously, climate change is terrifying, but we can adapt. People and communities are very resilient, and there are solutions that can help us continue to navigate the world and mitigate a lot of what is happening.
I think it’s really important that people know that, because when you understand that it’s not an inevitability, you know that you can take action and help protect yourself and the people around you.