More than a forecast: Q&A with Allan Just

When you check the weather on your phone, you're getting a "best guess" based on the nearest airport—but your actual neighborhood could be much hotter. And in high-risk communities, this invisible temperature spike, or major air quality issue, transforms a daily forecast into a serious medical emergency.

In honor of Brown’s first-ever Climate Week, environmental epidemiologist Allan Just sits down with us to explain how his team uses NASA satellite data to measure hyper-local temperatures and air pollution. Discover why these precise measurements are vital for public health, especially for those on common medications that can unexpectedly increase vulnerability to extreme heat.

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How does heat and air pollution affect neighborhoods in the same city differently?

Just: Individual neighborhoods can be warmer or cooler, and that varies. It depends on how many trees there are, and how much pavement there is, and whether you're near a body of water, or whether there's a major roadway that goes through.

We see, for example, that people that live in a valley are experiencing worse air pollution on average than people who live up on a hill. And it sort of makes sense when you think about it because the air gets trapped and it can stay there. So when you have some sort of local emission source or you have long range transport of air pollutants that are coming down, they can settle close to the surface, and then that's what you're breathing and it may not get moved out by wind or other patterns.

We're doing lots of studies in which we're using the location of an individual's specific address or the school that their children attend or we're considering the location of every nursing home in the Northeast. So there are many studies in which we're trying to drill down into those very, very specific quantities.

Typically, research into heat and air pollution has used much less specific temperature readings, from airports and weather stations, but your satellite data is different.

We have used kind of a broad brush to assign what we think people are exposed to and have not always tracked that different neighborhoods are experiencing different temperatures. We think that when we get more specific, we've been underestimating the burden. 

By bringing in data from NASA satellites, those satellites are telling us things like the temperature of the surface of the earth, and we're also bringing in information about land cover, how much vegetation there is, the amount of people nearby.

We're bringing together lots of different kinds of information and we're training up a model so that we can have a better reconstruction where we don't have those direct measurements. All of that layered information helps them make precise predictions about how hot it was at any spot in the United States.

With air pollution, there's even fewer of those regulatory-grade, high-quality monitors that are measuring air pollution. Many US counties don't even have a single measurement, and when we just use the nearest monitor, we're accepting quite a bit of error in the measurement that we're assigning. And then that error means that if we try to relate what someone is being exposed to what they're actually breathing, we get the answer slightly wrong.

And so there's particular value in reconstructing what people breathe or what they're feeling, where they live, where they work and play.

How do these satellites capture information about air pollution?

One of the main satellite measures that we work with is called aerosol optical depth, and what the satellite is detecting is that the particles that we're concerned about, because they impact human health, they're also what cause smog. They scatter the light and instead of having the ability to see a distant mountain range when it's polluted, we're not able to see as far, we have less visibility. In the same way, the NASA satellites are looking at how light that ought to be reflected off of the surface gets scattered by the particles that are in that atmospheric column. That's the quantity that we're taking into understanding the exposure that's happening down near the surface where you and I breathe because somewhere above us, between here and space, is enough of this particle aerosols that it's scattering the light.

“ The goal of that project is that we know what are the levels at which we need to take public health actions. Who needs that intervention if there is a heat wave coming? Who do we need to reach out to when we see that the air quality is starting to degrade? ”

Allan Just Ph.D. Nazareth-Ferguson Family University Associate Professor of Public Health, associate professor of epidemiology and of environment and society

What do we do with this data? How does it help people who are experiencing extreme heat, and how does that improve public health?

One of the projects that we have right now is to relate the amount of heat and humidity and air pollution that people were experiencing where they lived with very, very large data sets, records of emergency department visits, of hospitalizations, and of death.

The goal of that project is that we know what are the levels at which we need to take public health actions. Who needs that intervention if there is a heat wave coming? Who do we need to reach out to when we see that the air quality is starting to degrade?

We're working towards analyses to better understand how people who are using particular medications might be left more vulnerable to heat because those medications impact the body's ability to regulate its own temperature. So we're looking at sets of medications that are used to treat common conditions and evaluating whether you're better off on drug A or drug B, if there's a heat wave coming from the perspective of the risks related to heat. There are quite a few medications that, through different mechanisms, they can alter our ability to feel thirst. They can change the ways in which we retain body fluids. They can impair our ability to sweat.

I mean, there are just several really important mechanisms at play when we think about the ways in which people end up vulnerable to extreme heat. And, particularly when we think about older adults, the use of medications just goes up and up. And so the likelihood that someone is taking a common medication that could have this sort of side effect, it does increase with age.

When we have this kind of specific information, is it easier for us to see that neighborhoods with less resources are experiencing heat and other environmental stress more than wealthier neighborhoods?

Yeah, that's right. So social vulnerability can have many different dimensions, but what we see in both heat and in air pollution is that overburdened communities, underserved communities, they are systematically hotter, and that's driven by land use decisions and structural racism. That's led to differences in where we've kept vegetation and where we've put pavement and roadways and those subtle differences are lost when we assume that everyone is living at the airport because, we know that urban core areas often have heat island impacts where the density of pavement and dark impervious surfaces really holds onto that heat, particularly in the nighttime. And so people in communities that stay hotter at night, they don't get that physiologic relief and they're experiencing more intense heat stress than people who are living in cooler, vegetated suburbs.

By linking state-of-the-art models that have reconstructed temperature and humidity and air pollution with these very large data sets, we're hoping we can do a better job of quantifying how much air pollution and heat matters for human health. That could drive better policy, better investment, and bring about just a greater attention to how big a risk this is. And we're hoping that we come out with some practical solutions. It makes a lot of sense to me in a warming world, that we do need to look for things that are potentially modifiable and we do need to take actions to protect people.

It's gonna get hot this summer and we keep using this phrase, “the hottest year yet.” And I think being forward looking is planning for that, that these risks are going to recur and we need to find actions, policies, interventions, things that we can do to help protect people.

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