Researchers identify the keys to preventing hospitalizations during nursing home flu outbreaks

Using new statistical methods, researchers from Brown University find that rapid treatment of at least 70% of residents with antivirals within 48 hours reduces hospitalizations by 21%.

In nursing homes, influenza spreads quickly. Even in facilities with separate wings, staff move throughout the home, caring for medically complex older adults who often share rooms. In this way, a single case of influenza can rapidly become a facility-wide outbreak.

National guidelines recommend treating all eligible nursing home residents with antiviral medications at the start of an outbreak to reduce the spread of disease and prevent serious outcomes. But the evidence is limited on how fast nursing homes need to act, and how many of their residents need to be treated.

A new study led by researchers from Brown’s School of Public Health could inform real-world outbreak management and clarify key guidelines for nursing home staff and clinicians.

Led by Andrew Zullo, associate professor of epidemiology and of health services, policy and practice at Brown, the team found that administering antiviral chemoprophylaxis—oseltamivir (also known by the brand name Tamiflu)—within the first two days of an outbreak, to at least 70% of residents, reduces the risk of hospitalization by 21%.

“The practical message here is that you’re in a race against time to treat an outbreak and so facilities have to remember to pursue using prophylaxis,” Zullo said. “After they’ve made that decision, the key is to do it as rapidly as possible and to reach the greatest number of eligible residents within the facility.” 

National guidelines recommend that 100% of eligible residents receive antivirals at the start of an outbreak. The research team arrived at 70% because they found it more feasible for nursing homes to achieve since some residents have contraindications, refuse treatment, are receiving comfort-focused care, or are temporarily offsite. 

The practical message here is that you’re in a race against time to treat an outbreak and so facilities have to remember to pursue using prophylaxis. After they’ve made that decision, the key is to do it as rapidly as possible and to reach the greatest number of eligible residents within the facility.

Andrew Zullo Pharma.D., Ph.D. associate professor of epidemiology and of health services, policy and practice
 
photo of Andrew Zullo, associate professor of epidemiology and of health services, policy and practice at Brown

“While the study doesn’t mean that every single resident should get prophylaxis automatically, because clinical judgment still matters, it’s definitely important to treat fast and extensively,” Zullo said. “Not every resident necessarily has to receive it for there to be a benefit. It’s similar to vaccination in that you can limit viral transmission if enough people get oseltamivir.” 

The researchers conducted a retrospective cohort study of 404 outbreaks in 318 nursing homes, involving roughly 30,000 residents. Nursing homes were assigned to two groups: an intensive strategy that involved initiating oseltamivir prophylaxis for at least 70% of eligible residents within 2 days of outbreak detection, and a nonintensive strategy that did not reach those thresholds.

The team used new statistical methods that account for the amount of time that passes before the facility responds to an outbreak. Specifically, they examined whether initiating antivirals within two days of a detected outbreak is associated with lower mortality and hospitalization rates measured at 14 and 30 days. Although they found no difference in mortality rates, they did find a clear benefit of avoiding hospitalization.

“Some of the prior methods that researchers had used hadn’t accounted for the fact that this unfolds over time, and so they had introduced some bias, potentially, into their estimates,” Zullo said. “In this study, we use methods that account for the need to dynamically wait and see how a facility responds, being careful to capture the waiting time as the facility decides on, and then implements its strategy.”